Economist Joel Bhagwandin says the Government’s recent agricultural outreaches across Regions Five, Six, Eight and Nine should be viewed as part of a wider effort to transform Guyana’s non-oil economy and strengthen long-term food security.
In a letter published in the daily newspapers on May 25, Bhagwandin argued that the current direction of the agriculture sector goes beyond increasing production and reflects a deliberate strategy aimed at expanding Guyana’s productive base.
“The issue is not simply more production. It is structural transformation,” Bhagwandin stated.
According to him, the Government’s agricultural drive is tied closely to the country’s food security agenda heading into 2030, especially as Guyana’s annual food import bill is approaching GYD 200 billion depending on global prices and import demand.
“The message from the field is clear: agriculture is no longer being expanded only along traditional lines. It is being widened into a broader production system capable of displacing imports, creating new value chains, and contributing more materially to agricultural GDP and the non-oil economy,” he wrote.
Bhagwandin pointed to pilot projects involving beet and onion cultivation, along with the scaling up of corn and soya production, as evidence of efforts to develop agricultural sub-sectors that were previously underdeveloped in Guyana.
He also referenced investments in agro-processing, poultry and aquaculture as part of what he described as a wider production model focused on import substitution and value-added production.
“This is not merely about producing more within the same structure. It is about structural expansion, with a wider range of agricultural and agro-industrial activities being created, formalized and added to the country’s GDP base,” Bhagwandin noted.
The economist further linked the strategy to Budget 2026 allocations, noting that the Government has budgeted GYD 113.2 billion for the agriculture sector this year, including GYD 81.9 billion earmarked for drainage and irrigation works.
“These are the fiscal fingerprints of a state trying to widen the non-oil production base while oil revenues still provide the fiscal space to do so,” he stated.
Bhagwandin said Guyana currently has about 1.04 million acres of agricultural land available, but only around 32 per cent is under cultivation. He noted that Government’s plan to develop 100,000 acres of new arable lands by 2030 would increase cultivated lands to roughly 42 per cent.
“The implication is straightforward: Guyana is not merely trying to raise output at the margin; it is investing heavily to expand the productive potential of the sector itself,” he wrote.
He also highlighted tax incentives announced in Budget 2026, including the removal of corporate taxes on agriculture and agro-processing businesses, saying the measure is intended to improve reinvestment and strengthen production capacity.
“In other words, the state is directly lowering the tax-cost structure on productive activity. That is serious sector-building,” Bhagwandin stated.At the same time, the economist warned that increased public spending alone will not guarantee success if local producers remain unable to access financing needed to expand operations.
“Without a stronger development finance architecture, Guyana risks overinvesting in physical assets while underfinancing domestic productive actors,” he cautioned.
Bhagwandin also referenced SphereX estimates showing aggregate household income rising from approximately GYD 119.7 billion in 2010 to about GYD 790.1 billion in 2025, arguing that rising incomes will increase demand for food and agricultural products.
“The real question is whether that incremental demand will be captured by Guyanese farmers, processors and agribusinesses, or whether it will continue to leak outward through imports,” he stated.
According to Bhagwandin, agriculture now sits at the centre of Guyana’s long-term non-oil development strategy.
“Oil may dominate the headline numbers today, but it will not solve the employment question on its own, nor the rural income question, nor the import substitution question, nor the long-run resilience question,” he wrote.
He added that if managed properly through infrastructure, fiscal support and stronger financing mechanisms, agriculture could emerge as a major pillar of Guyana’s non-oil economy beyond 2030.
“So far, the signals suggest that the Government is on the right track,” Bhagwandin stated.
