Guyana’s broad money supply expanded at nearly twice the pace of the country’s non-oil economy in 2025, a development that SphereX Professional Services says represents the clearest early warning of emerging economic overheating pressures.
In its August 2026 Macro-Financial Policy Note, SphereX, a local consulting and financial advisory firm, said broad money, or M2, grew by 29.3 per cent in 2025, while nominal non-oil Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 15 per cent.
This left a 14.3 percentage-point gap, with money supply growing approximately 1.95 times as fast as the nominal non-oil economy. SphereX said a similar 14.3 percentage-point gap was recorded in 2024.
The firm explained that comparing M2 growth with nominal non-oil GDP is important because the money stock is measured in nominal terms.
SphereX cautioned, however, that the gap by itself does not prove that increased money supply is causing inflation. It said factors including imports, financial deepening, money demand and foreign exchange leakages can absorb some of the additional money circulating in the economy.
However, the firm said the situation becomes a more significant pressure indicator when considered alongside fiscal expansion, labour constraints, credit growth, low real returns on savings and weak interest-rate transmission.
The report comes as SphereX argues that Guyana is beginning to display signs of overheating, although it stopped short of declaring that the country is experiencing full economy-wide overheating.
“The evidence supports ‘emerging overheating signals,’ not runaway or conclusive overheating,” the firm stated.
According to SphereX, the appropriate response should therefore not be an abrupt attempt to reduce the money supply to match a single year of economic growth.
Instead, it said the widening monetary gap should trigger “active liquidity forecasting and calibrated absorption,” as part of a broader effort to manage growing demand without disrupting Guyana’s development.
SphereX has called for a “soft landing”, arguing that Guyana should manage excess liquidity and the pace of demand while protecting productive investments and the country’s wider growth trajectory.
