Guyana’s unemployment rate fell to 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, continuing a significant decline from 12.2 per cent in the corresponding period of 2017, according to a new macro-financial analysis by SphereX Professional Services.
In its August 2026 Macro-Financial Policy Note, the Guyana-based financial advisory firm said the latest labour market data point to much stronger absorption of workers into the economy.
Unemployment stood at approximately 6.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2024 before declining further to 6.2 per cent at the end of 2025.
“This is a substantial tightening signal,” SphereX stated.
The firm noted that the 2025 unemployment estimate has a 95 per cent confidence interval of between 5.2 per cent and 7.3 per cent.
Despite the decline in overall unemployment, challenges remain among young people and within the informal economy.
Youth unemployment stood at 12.6 per cent, while informal employment was recorded at 45.2 per cent. The youth NEET rate- representing young people not in employment, education or training- was 27.1 per cent.
SphereX cautioned against using the headline unemployment figure alone to determine whether Guyana is approaching full employment.
“Near-full employment is ultimately a wage, vacancy, hours, participation and skills-mismatch proposition- not a single headline threshold,” the report stated.
The firm examined the labour figures alongside Guyana’s growing population, noting that the preliminary 2022 census recorded 878,674 residents, compared with 746,955 in 2012. The Bureau of Statistics subsequently estimated the population at approximately 956,044 by the end of 2024.
According to SphereX, the combination of population growth and falling unemployment indicates that the economy is absorbing labour at a faster rate.
However, the firm views the tightening labour market as one of several early indicators of pressure within the rapidly expanding economy.
“Rapid population growth expands demand; falling unemployment shows that the economy is absorbing labour quickly,” SphereX stated.
It added that when considered alongside wage pressures, skills shortages, strong construction activity and monetary expansion, the labour market figures strengthen the case for early policy action rather than contractionary measures.edited 13:09
