Guyana is continuing to outpace its Caribbean neighbours by a wide margin, with the World Bank projecting the country’s economy to expand by 23.7% in 2026 as several regional economies record low single-digit growth or even contractions.
The figures are contained in the World Bank’s October 2026 Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Update, which paints a sharply divided picture of economic performance across the Caribbean.
According to the Bank’s growth outlook, Guyana’s projected 23.7% expansion this year compares with 3.9% for neighbouring Suriname, 3.3% for Grenada, 3% for The Bahamas and Dominica, 2.6% for St. Vincent and the Grenadines, 2.4% for Belize and 2% for Barbados.
St. Lucia is projected to grow by just 1.1%, while Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica are expected to contract by 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively.
The disparity comes as the World Bank describes the Caribbean as experiencing a “dual-track” economic reality, with resource-rich economies increasingly separating themselves from countries heavily dependent on tourism.
“Guyana’s unprecedented oil-driven expansion continues to pull up the subregional averages,” the Bank said.
It noted that Guyana’s rapid expansion is being complemented by increased investments in Suriname linked to offshore oil discoveries, while Trinidad and Tobago maintains a more mature natural gas production profile.
On the other side, the Bank said growth in tourism-dependent Caribbean economies has moderated due to softer external demand, persistent import and energy costs and recurring climate vulnerabilities.
“This widening gap underscores a deepening structural divide between resource-abundant commodity exporters and service-reliant economies across the Caribbean,” the report stated.
Guyana’s lead is not limited to 2026. World Bank figures show that the country’s economy grew by 33.8% in 2023 and surged by 43.8% in 2024, before expanding by another 19.3% in 2025.
Even as that exceptional pace is expected to moderate, Guyana is forecast to remain in double-digit territory, with growth projected at 18.7% in 2027 and 15.3% in 2028.
Suriname, meanwhile, is projected to accelerate from 3.9% this year to 4.6% in 2027 before recording a significant 21.5% expansion in 2028. Barbados is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2027 and 2.2% in 2028, while Trinidad and Tobago is projected to rebound to 2.5% and 4% over the same period.
The World Bank said the broader Latin America and Caribbean region is expected to grow by only 2.2% this year, slightly below the 2.4% recorded in 2025. It cautioned, however, that the regional average masks significantly different economic paths among countries.
For the Caribbean specifically, the Bank said Guyana and Suriname’s oil-driven expansions stand in contrast to the “maturing, more tempered post-pandemic recovery” of tourism-dependent island economies, which continue to face high energy and transportation costs.
The figures reinforce Guyana’s position as the Caribbean’s standout growth economy, with its 2026 projected growth rate several times higher than that of every other Caribbean country listed in the World Bank’s outlook.
