Guyana’s Natural Resource Fund (NRF) could accumulate a balance of approximately US$83.9 billion by 2041 under a projection by SphereX Professional Services Inc., providing a substantial financial cushion for economic stability and future generations.
The projection is outlined in an October 18 report prepared by financial analyst Joel Bhagwandin, titled France’s Fiscal Reckoning. It depends on the firm’s assumptions about petroleum production, oil prices, investment returns and withdrawals from the Fund.
The estimated balance is expressed in real terms, meaning it accounts for inflation. It is a scenario-based projection rather than a guaranteed outcome or an official government forecast.
“The NRF materially strengthens the national balance sheet, but should not be netted against gross debt without qualification,” the report states.
SphereX argues that the Fund’s growing savings improve Guyana’s financial resilience, while emphasising that their value extends beyond meeting present expenditure.
“This powerful buffer remains a stabilisation and intergenerational asset exposed to oil-price, production, withdrawal-rule and market-return risk,” the report notes.
The Fund’s stabilisation role concerns its ability to help cushion economic and revenue shocks, while its intergenerational purpose involves preserving a share of petroleum wealth for Guyanese beyond the current oil-producing period.
According to SphereX, these functions should remain central to decisions about how quickly petroleum savings are spent.
The firm recommends that policymakers distinguish between the amount legally available for withdrawal and the amount the economy can use efficiently.
“Separate the legal withdrawal ceiling from what the economy can absorb efficiently, protecting the Fund’s stabilisation and intergenerational functions,” the report recommends.
That distinction places emphasis on the country’s capacity to turn expenditure into productive investments and lasting improvements in public services.
SphereX identifies reliable energy, transport and logistics, agriculture, industrial capability, education and skills, deeper financial markets and stronger institutions as areas where petroleum resources can help expand Guyana’s economic capacity.
The report argues that investments in these areas should strengthen the non-oil economy and generate recurring revenue to support the country when petroleum receipts eventually decline.
However, a large NRF balance would not remove the need to assess the pace and purpose of borrowing.
“It improves debt resilience without making the composition, pace or productivity of borrowing irrelevant,” SphereX states.
The firm’s broader assessment is that Guyana’s petroleum income and national savings provide genuine financial advantages. Preserving those advantages, it argues, requires balancing current development needs with the Fund’s capacity to support the country over the longer term.
“Oil can finance the transition. Only the non-oil economy can sustain the settlement,” the report states.
