GPL forecasts 600% spike in power demand by 2030
-existing consumers, industrial expansion driving surge
Guyana’s electricity demand is expected to climb dramatically over the next five years, with projections pointing to a staggering 600 per cent increase in generating capacity requirements by 2030.
The disclosure was made by Head of Executive Management at Guyana Power and Light (GPL), Kesh Nandlall, during a panel discussion at the Guyana Energy Conference and Supply Chain Expo on Thursday.
“Peak demand is now at 236 megawatts (MW). By 2030, we estimated it to be 1,650 MW or 1 gigawatt (GW), 650 MW of peak demand output that we’ll have to have generation in place [to meet]…that means 600 per cent increase in our generating capacity from now to 2030,” Nandlall stated.
The current peak of 236 MW represents a doubling from 2020 levels, when demand stood at 120 MW. According to Nandlall, while the customer base has grown, the bulk of the increase stems from higher consumption by existing users and the entry of larger industrial customers onto the grid.
GPL’s customer register moved from approximately 201,000 in 2020 to 244,000 today, a 21 per cent rise. However, the GPL executive stressed that the expansion in housing schemes and industrial development has significantly driven up generation requirements.
“So, that significant growth results from existing customer demand growing and new customers. We talk about the rapid development of the housing sector [and] the development of the industrial sector. So, the grow really is in the generation requirement more than the number of customers. The same customers are demand more and bigger customers are coming on [to the national grid],” he explained.
To keep pace, GPL has ramped up supply over the past five years. Generation output climbed from 903 gigawatt-hours in 2020 to 1,485 gigawatt-hours currently, a 65 per cent increase.
Nandlall noted that more than 186 MW of firm capacity has been added since 2020, including new facilities at Garden of Eden and Colombia, as well as power ships in the Berbice and Demerara rivers. Additionally, 18 MW of solar capacity has been integrated into the grid, alongside smaller systems in Bartica, Wakenaam and Leguan, and mini-grids across hinterland communities.
On the Demerara-Berbice Interconnected System (DBIS), the country’s main grid, approximately 260 MW of firm capacity is now available, with expectations that this will rise to around 285 MW this year.
Still, the projected surge far outpaces current capacity. Nandlall acknowledged the urgency of bridging the gap ahead of the Gas-to-Energy (GtE) Project coming on stream at Wales, West Bank Demerara.
“We have to now equip ourselves to bridge that gap until the end of the year when the Gas-to-Energy (GtE) Project will come onstream,” he said.
The Wales facility will deliver 300 MW of power through a combined cycle plant and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) facility. Government has repeatedly said the project will slash electricity costs by half and improve reliability.
However, with demand expected to multiply over the next five years, even that addition will not be sufficient. Plans are already in train for a second 300 MW plant under GtE Phase Two, which is targeted for commissioning by 2030.
The figures underscore the scale of transformation underway in Guyana, where rapid industrialisation, housing expansion and economic growth are fuelling unprecedented pressure on the national grid.
