The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the world could see an even bigger oil surplus next year, as much as 4 million barrels per day (bpd), as major producers, including OPEC+ countries and new oil nations like Guyana, continue to ramp up production while global demand remains slow.
The IEA, which advises industrialised nations, said in its latest report that this surplus would represent almost 4% of total global oil demand, one of the largest gaps between supply and demand in recent years. The agency’s earlier forecast was 3.3 million bpd, but that figure has now been revised upward due to increased production plans across multiple countries.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies recently agreed to ease production cuts faster than previously scheduled. That move is sending more crude oil into the market, which is already struggling with low demand, leading to concerns of another oil glut.
Oil prices have already shown the impact. On Tuesday, Brent crude traded just below US$62 per barrel, slightly higher than its April 2025 low of US$58.
According to the IEA, oil supply is rising faster than demand. The agency expects global oil production to increase by 3 million bpd this year and another 2.4 million bpd in 2026. However, demand is expected to grow by only 700,000 bpd in each of the next two years, a sharp slowdown compared to past trends.
The IEA says this slower growth is mainly due to a tougher global economy and the continued shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicles.
Interestingly, OPEC disagrees with the IEA’s gloomy outlook. In its own report, OPEC maintained that global demand will grow by 1.3 million bpd this year, nearly twice what the IEA predicts, and said the world economy remains strong enough to support that growth.
The IEA report also noted that part of the increased oil supply is coming from non-OPEC countries such as the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana.
Guyana, one of the fastest-growing oil producers in the world, has been steadily increasing production from its offshore fields, and this growth is expected to continue contributing to the global supply rise.
While OPEC insists that supply and demand will balance out next year, the IEA’s warning suggests that the world may be heading toward a major oversupply, which could affect the earnings of oil-dependent countries, including Guyana.
