Guyana has sharply upgraded its oil revenue outlook for 2026, with petroleum deposits into the Natural Resource Fund now projected to reach almost US$6.5 billion, about US$3.75 billion more than anticipated when this year’s Budget was prepared.
The revised projection represents a 136.8% increase over the original US$2.74 billion estimate and comes as higher oil prices, rising production and changes in cost recovery significantly increase the Government’s expected share of profit oil.
According to the Government’s 2026 Mid-Year Report, petroleum revenue deposits are now forecast at US$6.497 billion, comprising approximately US$5.972 billion from profit oil, US$508.1 million in royalties and US$17 million in signature bonus revenue. The initial Budget had projected US$2.744 billion in petroleum deposits for the year.
Importantly, the US$6.5 billion figure is a full-year projection, not the amount already received. By the end of June, just under US$2 billion in petroleum revenues had actually been deposited into the NRF.
During the first quarter, Guyana received approximately US$761.7 million, comprising US$650.8 million in profit-oil payments and US$110.9 million in royalties.
Between April and June, another US$1.235 billion entered the Fund, including approximately US$1.128 billion from profit oil and US$107.5 million in royalties. That was about 62% more than the petroleum revenue received during the first three months of the year.
Combined, petroleum revenue deposits for the first six months amounted to approximately US$1.997 billion.
The Mid-Year Report states that the Government received US$1.7786 billion from its share of profit oil during the first half and US$218.4 million in royalty payments. It also earned approximately US$66.9 million in interest, bringing total NRF inflows, including investment income, to above US$2.06 billion for the period.
One of the biggest changes since Budget 2026 was prepared is the number of oil cargoes Guyana is now expected to receive.
At Budget time, the Government had projected it would receive 40 profit-oil lifts out of an estimated 309 lifts from the Stabroek Block during 2026.
The latest projections now put total Stabroek Block lifts at approximately 326, with the Government expected to receive as many as 84 profit-oil lifts, more than double the original estimate.
The report attributes the dramatic change to what it describes as “cost bank desaturation,” together with increased production and the ramp-up of the One Guyana FPSO.
Guyana produced 163.3 million barrels of crude during the first six months of 2026, compared with 115.7 million barrels during the corresponding period last year.
Average production climbed from approximately 639,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2025 to around 902,000 barrels per day this year, with four FPSOs operating simultaneously offshore Guyana.
Crude averaged approximately US$92.50 per barrel during the first half of 2026, some 28.9% above the corresponding period last year amid disruptions to global energy markets.
That combination of higher production, stronger prices and a larger Government share of available profit oil has transformed the revenue outlook.
Under the Stabroek Block Production Sharing Agreement, the oil companies can recover development and operating costs from up to 75% of gross petroleum revenue. The remaining oil is classified as profit oil and divided equally between the Government and the contractors.
As historical development costs are recovered, the proportion of production needed for cost recovery can fall, leaving a larger pool of profit oil available for sharing.
The Mid-Year Report says this process is now contributing to Guyana receiving more profit oil.
However, the Government cautioned that reducing the historical cost bank does not mean Guyana automatically begins receiving 50% of gross petroleum revenue.
