Guyana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures should be rebased to better reflect the dramatic changes to the economy since the start of oil production, according to SphereX Professional Services.
In its August 2026 Macro-Financial Policy Note, SphereX argues that a 2022 benchmark is now necessary, noting that Guyana’s official constant-price GDP series continues to be published using 2012 prices.
The firm pointed to the Bureau of Statistics’ 2020 rebasing report, which states that national accounts should generally be rebased every five years to account for changes in prices, the structure of the economy, products, classifications and data sources.
Since 2012, however, Guyana’s economy has undergone significant changes, particularly with the commencement of oil production after the current base year.
“Oil production began after the current base year and has transformed construction, services, imports, government, finance, employment and relative prices,” SphereX stated.
According to the firm, rebasing could result in different weights being assigned to oil, construction, services, Information and Communications Technology (ICT), finance and newer economic activities. Changes could also occur in the measurement of real growth and the deflators used to calculate it.
SphereX said the exercise could also affect several widely used GDP ratios, including debt-to-GDP, assets-to-GDP, deposits-to-GDP and fiscal deficits. It cautioned that these ratios should not automatically be expected to improve under a new benchmark, but should instead be recalculated using the revised figures.
A revised nominal non-oil GDP series could also change estimates of the gap between money-supply growth and the non-oil economy, as well as estimates of money velocity.
The firm also highlighted problems with comparing economic data across the existing rebasing break, pointing to a jump in its model from G$326 billion to G$830 billion in 2012.
SphereX therefore recommends the publication of linked or back-cast historical series, detailed metadata and a bridge showing the transition from 2012 to 2022 weights.
However, the firm stressed that rebasing would not change underlying factors such as the amount of money in circulation, bank deposits, excess reserves, the price level or financial pressures facing households.
“Rebasing does not erase nominal money, bank deposits, excess reserves, the price level or household cash constraints,” the report stated.
SphereX said Guyana’s overheating assessment should be updated following the rebasing exercise, but should not be put on hold while that process is completed.
The firm further recommends that the 2022 GDP rebase be accompanied by an updated Consumer Price Index basket, regular household budget and labour force surveys, GDP by expenditure, quarterly chained-volume estimates, supply-and-use tables, wage indicators and a residential property-price index.
