South America is on track to become the world’s top source of new oil outside the OPEC+ group, with Rystad Energy projecting strong year-on-year growth across the decade. The forecast was outlined during a recent episode of the “Let’s Talk Energy” podcast, where Rystad vice-president Radhika Bonsal broke down the region’s expanding role in global supply.
According to Rystad’s outlook, South America is expected to add 560,000 barrels per day of crude and condensate in 2024, followed by another 750,000 barrels per day in 2025. Bonsal said this places the region ahead of North America in non-OPEC+ production growth through 2030. She noted that while U.S. shale has long been the main driver of global supply expansion, its growth is slowing, opening the door for South America to take the lead.
Bonsal explained that global liquids demand is projected to peak in the early 2030s at around 107 million barrels per day and remain above 100 million barrels per day into the 2040s. With output from existing wells expected to fall to less than half by the end of the decade, new barrels from under-development and discovered fields will be needed, and much of that is set to come from South America.
She said the region’s competitiveness is strengthened by deepwater barrels that remain viable even at US$40 Brent, giving companies confidence that developments can proceed even in lower-price environments.
Guyana was highlighted as one of the major contributors to South America’s rising output. Bonsal noted that the country, which moved from zero production a few years ago to multiple producing FPSOs, is expected to produce above 700,000 barrels per day in 2025.
Two new projects are scheduled to come online by 2027, adding another 500,000 barrels per day to national capacity. With the recently approved Hammerhead and Longtail developments, overall capacity is projected to reach 1.7 million barrels per day.
However, Bonsal cautioned that while ExxonMobil’s early exploration success propelled Guyana’s meteoric rise, discoveries have slowed. Only 420 million barrels of liquids were discovered over the past year, the lowest level since 2017, signalling the need for continued exploration activity to sustain long-term growth.
Brazil remains the largest producer in South America, while Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale and Suriname’s upcoming GranMorgo development will also support the region’s rise. But it is Guyana’s rapid expansion, strong project pipeline and competitive deepwater resources that place it at the centre of the global supply conversation.
With demand staying robust for decades and companies seeking new advantaged barrels, Rystad’s analysis suggests South America will be a pivotal force in meeting the world’s future oil needs.
